A mostly graphical daily curated roundup of the markets and the economy from Nasdaq’s IR team.

| “The most important single central fact about a free market is that no exchange takes place unless both parties benefit.” -Milton Friedman, 1976 Nobel Prize Economics

| Money-Market Fund Assets Rise to Fresh High -BBG

| “markets say 71% probability of Fed cut on March 20th FOMC, 100% probability May 1st” -BofA’s Michael Hartnett

| jobs market still relatively strong | U.S. payrolls rose 199,000 in November (beating estimates), unemployment rate falls to 3.7%

| Average hourly earnings, a key inflation indicator, 0.4% MoM (above estimate), 4% YoY (in-line).

IR Insight chart

* source: CNBC

| Food for thought … jobs market & the equity market

IR Insight chart

IR Insight chart

* source: BofA’s Michael Hartnett, The Flow Show

| “yen jumps 6% past 4 weeks as markets discount end of ultra-easy YCC policy…big 10-20% jumps in Japanese yen historically coincide with global volatility events, end of Japan YCC raises “floor” for global yields, and higher yen 1st big test for bull market in Japan stocks (it’s a true bull when Nikkei rises with higher yen).” -Michael Hartnett, BofA, The Flow Show

| Traders Pile Into Bets That End of Negative BOJ Rate Is Near -BBG | Odds of a hike from the BOJ next week rose from 0 to 30%

IR Insight chart

* source: CNBC

| Markets are cheering peak rates & disinflation…how long will this rally last?

IR Insight chart

| Oil prices have been falling removing pressure on prices…

IR Insight chart

* source: Barclays’ Emmanuel Cau

| Mortgage rates fall for sixth straight week to just above 7%

IR Insight chart

* source: Yardeni Research

| Nov/Dec seasonality = positive, in other words equity markets generally rise

|Chinese property stocks…

IR Insight chart

* source: BofA’s Michael Hartnett, The Flow Show

1) KEY TAKEAWAYS

1) Equities MIXED / Dollar & TYields & Oil HIGHER / Gold LOWER

AAII (Retail) Weekly Sentiment: Bullish ticked down, Bearish rose, and neutral fell.

DJ -0.1% S&P500 0.0% Nasdaq -0.1% R2K 0.6% Cdn TSX 0.2%

Stoxx Europe 600 0.6% APAC stocks MIXED, 10YR TYield = 4.226%

Dollar HIGHER, Gold $2,007, WTI 2%, $71; Brent 2%, $76, Bitcoin $43,995

2) “Elevated interest rates and tightening lending standards continued to drive a broad-based slowdown in consumer credit growth in October.” -Oxford Economics

IR Insight chart

IR Insight chart

* source: Oxford Economics

3) NEXT WEEK:

US: CPI, small business optimism, Fed rate decision are key highlights

IR Insight chart

* source: Barclays’ Emmanuel Cau

2) ESG, COMPILED BY NATHAN GREENE

Who is pledging climate finance at COP28, and how much? – RTRS

-The biggest single deal of COP28 saw hosts the United Arab Emirates pledge $30 billion to a new fund to invest in climate friendly projects across the globe, with $5 billion for the Global South.

-The World Bank said it aims to increase climate funding to 45% of its total lending, which equates to an increase of $9 billion annually.

-The world’s largest international fund dedicated to supporting climate action in developing countries received pledges of $3.5 billion in the opening days of the event, including fresh funding from the United States.

The New World Bank Leader Has the Climate Crisis at the Top of His Agenda – NYT

-Just weeks after Ajay Banga took over, the bank said it would pause debt and interest payments for countries hit by natural disasters, including hurricanes and wildfires made worse by global warming.

-A full 45 percent of the bank’s lending is now going toward climate-related projects, including new renewable energy construction, up from 36 percent the previous year.

3) MARKETS, MACRO, CORPORATE NEWS

  • Gasoline set to get even cheaper as futures hit two-year low-BBG
  • BofA’s Hartnett says rising bonds will drag on stocks early 2024-BBG
  • Bond traders to face a reality check with Friday’s jobs report-BBG
  • Yen fluctuates as focus shifts from BOJ speculation to US data-BBG
  • Surge in management buyouts gives extra boost to Japanese stocks-BBG
  • China stocks test critical support levels as selloff extends-BBG
  • US jobs data set bolster Federal Reserve’s higher-for-longer int. rates strat-FT
  • Mortgage rates fall back again, nearing7% and fuelingrefinance activity-YF
  • Citi projects economic slowdown in 2024 but no recession-YF
  • US household net worth falls on drop in value of stock holdings-BBG
  • China’s leaders pledge spur domestic demandeconomic recovery 2024-RTRS
  • EU ministers narrow gaps on fiscal rules, eye end-year deal-RTRS
  • German budget crisis: Ruling coalition gives up finalizing 2024 budget POL
  • Two-thirds of BOJ watchers expect end of negative rate regime by April-BBG
  • Shrinking economy in Japan casts doubt on BoJ rate raise bets-FT
  • ECB to clash with markets over rate-cut timing, survey shows-BBG
  • RBA sticks to inflation target in revised pact with government-BBG
  • After failed test vote, prospects dim for new Ukraine aid in US Congress-RTRS
  • California projects $68 billion shortfall on revenue plunge-BBG
  • Israel sharply ramps up Gaza strikes, U.S. alarmed-RTRS
  • U.S. conduct flight operations Guyana concerns mount over border spat-RTRS
  • China dismisses EU trade deficit concerns as leaders meet-FT
  • Micron strikes labor deal for $15 billion plant, boosting bid for US funds-BBG
  • Toshiba and Rohm team up on power chips, backed by subsidies-NIKKEI
  • UK watchdog examining Microsoft’s ties to OpenAI-FT
  • Apple aims to build more than 50 million iPhones annually in India: WSJ-RTRS
  • PayPal shares slide after Amazon drops Venmo as payment option-CNBC
  • Boeing signals two-month delay to 737 production ramp-up, sources say-RTRS
  • Dish jumps after FCC clears EchoStar deal reuniting Ergen’s empire-BBG
  • Musk lashes out again at Bob Iger after Disney pulls adsfrom XBBG
  • Tesla’s Dojo Supercomputer head exits in blow to efforts-BBG

Oil/Energy Headlines: 1) U.S. announces military drills with Guyana amid dispute over oil-rich region with Venezuela-CBS 2) OPEC+ alliance tightens crude output by 110,000 b/d in Nov, led by Iraq drop: Platts survey-PLATTS 3) India’s fuel demand slips in November from four-month peak-RTRS 4) India’s Russian oil imports seen rising on lower prices – official-RTRS 5) Australia energy giants Woodside and Santos in talks to create $52 billion gas powerhouse-CNBC 6) Canada asks oil firms to cut emissions by up to 38% in six years-RTRS 7) Nigeria’s Dangote refinery set to receive first crude cargo-RTRS 

Source: Nasdaq

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