CHICAGO, Nov 20 (Reuters) – The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) weekly crop progress report should show no change in U.S. winter wheat condition ratings, according to the average of estimates from 12 analysts surveyed by Reuters on Monday.
Winter wheat ratings to date suggest the crop is off to the best start in four years, favoring production prospects in the world’s No. 4 wheat exporter and potentially easing fears of tightening global grain supplies.
However, dry conditions persist in key areas including Kansas, the top winter wheat grower. The U.S. crop’s potential will be highly dependent on springtime weather.
Analysts on average expected the USDA to rate 47% of the winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, unchanged from the previous week and the highest for this time of year since 2019. Estimates ranged from 45% to 50% good-to-excellent.
Analysts on average expected the USDA to report planting of the 2024 winter wheat crop as 97% complete, up from 93% by Nov. 12. The government is scheduled to publish its crop progress report at 3 p.m. CST (2100 GMT) on Monday.
The share of U.S. winter wheat production located in a drought area rose to 44% as of Nov. 14, up from 42% the previous week, but still down significantly from 75% a year earlier, according to the USDA.
Meanwhile, the U.S. corn harvest is nearly finished. Analysts on average estimated the corn harvest as 94% complete. The USDA did not expect any further updates on soybean progress after reporting that 95% of the oilseed crop was harvested by Nov. 12.
The U.S. is the world’s second-largest corn and soybean exporter after Brazil.
All figures in percent:
Category
Analyst average
Analyst range
USDA last week
Corn harvested (%)
94
92-97
88
Winter wheat planted (%)
97
95-98
93
Winter wheat condition ratings*
47
45-50
47
*% good/excellent
(Reporting by Julie Ingwersen; editing by Christina Fincher)
((Julie.ingwersen@thomsonreuters.com; 1-313-484-5283; Reuters Messaging: julie.ingwersen.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net))
Source: Nasdaq
